The economic conditions Türkiye has experienced, particularly in the last two years, have led to an increase in negative commentary on economic management. Despite these critiques, a significant portion of the population believes that Türkiye‘s economy was very successfully managed, especially from the early 2000s to a certain point. However, international comparisons based on data indicate that Türkiye’s average performance from 2000 to 2023 followed global trends, without exceptional deviation.
To provide a broader perspective on the topic, Graph 1 illustrates the changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over time for selected countries. Growth in GDP per capita is considered one of the metrics of economic growth and increased welfare, offering a comparison between economies of varying sizes. The most striking part of the graph is the correlation in GDP per capita among the three selected countries, particularly after 2000. All three countries entered a growth trend after 2000, peaking around 2012-13. Subsequently, all three entered a decline, with Iran and Türkiye continuing to fall until 2020, while Russia experienced a fluctuating path during the same period. After 2020, all three countries saw a return to an upward trend.
The fact that the economies of different countries responded similarly during the same periods raises questions about the source of Türkiye‘s economic momentum after 2000. Was Türkiye’s growth a reflection of global developments, or was it the result of sound local policies implemented by the country’s leaders?
Graph 1.
It is a fact that Türkiye’s economy experienced rapid growth after 2000. According to World Bank data, GDP per capita increased from USD 4,278 in 2000 to USD 12,985 by the end of 2023. However, this seemingly impressive picture starts to lose its luster when comparisons are made. For instance, during the same period, the global average GDP per capita increased from USD 5,517 to USD 12,743. What caused this trend in global economic indicators starting from 2000 is another topic altogether, but it shows that Türkiye’s performance was only slightly better than the global average.
To better evaluate Türkiye’s economic performance, instead of comparing it with the global average, it’s more meaningful to compare it with specific countries. We can use the World Bank’s classification, as the institution classifies countries by income levels. This will show how Türkiye performed compared to economies in the same income group during the analyzed period. Graph 2 shows the countries’ income classifications in 2000. According to these data, 37 countries, including Türkiye, were classified as upper-middle-income economies in 2000. Due to certain constraints, only 22 of these countries are included in the analysis.
Graph 2.
The countries included in the analysis are ranked according to their GDP per capita growth rates between 2000 and 2023. Türkiye, with a growth rate of 203%, ranks 12th out of 22 countries. Estonia, with a 632% growth rate, tops the list, followed by the Czech Republic (404%), Poland (391%), and Hungary (378%). During the same period, excluding Türkiye, the average GDP growth rate of the remaining 21 countries was 216%. Despite the economic growth Türkiye achieved, it performed below the average of countries in its income group. Graph 3 shows the changes in average GDP for Türkiye and the other 21 countries between 2000 and 2023. It demonstrates that, even during periods when Türkiye’s economy was said to be excellently managed, the country did not diverge significantly from the average growth of countries in its category, especially since the negative divergence that began in 2017.
Graph 3.
Graph 4 reflects the classification of countries by income levels in 2023. A comparative look at Graph 2 shows that a number of countries in the same category as Türkiye in 2000 have moved up to a higher income group. A closer look reveals that many countries, particularly in Türkiye’s immediate region (the Caucasus, Balkans, and Baltic countries), have progressed from their income group to a higher one between 2000 and 2023.
Graph 4.
The data and analyses presented here show that Türkiye benefited from the global economic improvement to the extent that the average country in the upper-middle-income group did. As the average GDP increased globally, Türkiye‘s GDP also rose significantly, but this increase was only in line with the average growth experienced by other upper-middle-income countries. Thus, evaluating the performance of countries through comparisons yields more realistic results. Alongside this analysis, comparing Türkiye with countries that successfully separated from global trends and became success stories in development would be valuable in understanding the difference.
The United States has maintained its status as the world’s largest economy since 1960. Therefore, let’s divide the GDP per capita of the U.S. and keep it as the benchmark leader in this comparison. Then, we compare the GDP per capita of selected countries against that of the U.S. to see how these countries have performed over time relative to the U.S. economy. Graph 5 shows the results of these calculations.
As can be seen, five out of the six selected countries were in nearly the same position relative to the U.S. economy in 1960. However, two countries—Singapore and South Korea, both of which are considered development success stories in academic literature—began to diverge from the others. Estonia, which gained independence later, followed their lead. Meanwhile, the economies of countries like Türkiye, Brazil, and Malaysia, which have remained in the same income bracket for a long time, have performed similarly to the U.S. economy, and by 2023, their performance has nearly returned to their 1960 levels.
Graph 5.
The analyses and examinations presented above reveal that a significant portion of the success attributed to Türkiye’s economic management is actually a reflection of global developments. The increase in Türkiye ‘s GDP per capita mirrored global trends. Furthermore, Türkiye performed similarly to countries in the same income group according to the World Bank classification. In conclusion, despite the increase in income compared to its past, Türkiye Türkiye has not demonstrated any improvement in global rankings; it has simply taken its share of the overall global economic growth and prosperity.
References
[1] American Samoa, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahrain, Botswana, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czechia, Dominica, Estonia, Gabon, Grenada, Hungary, Isle of Man, Republic of Korea, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Oman, Palau, Panama, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Slovak Republic, South Africa, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, Uruguay, Venezuela.
[2] Venezuela, Libya, and Lebanon were excluded from the analysis due to political turmoil and lack of data after 2000. Additionally, some island nations listed were not included in the analysis due to their unsuitability for comparison. Consequently, data from 22 countries were used in the analyses presented in this article.
